introduction

Common prediction markets resolve to a binary outcome where one side wins and the other side loses. The same principle exists in trading in general: one side always must lose for the other side to win.

No-loss prediction markets enable users to speculate on the direction of given asset prices in regular intervals called epochs. If the prediction was right, the user wins a share of the epoch reward. If the prediction was wrong, the user can simply participate in the next epoch without losing.

This new primitive is enabled by a novel architecture that harnesses positive feedback loops and aggregates market intelligence to drive trading returns on shared capital that keep the system sustainable.

The shared trading capital of the vault as well as the epoch rewards are initially provided by the Possum Treasury with open, market based scaling mechanisms to be implemented in future versions.

At its heart, no-loss prediction markets combine a Signal Vault and an Asset Vault that are economically and functionally connected via the PSM token.

To participate in no-loss prediction markets, users only need to stake PSM and cast their prediction before the epoch deadline.